基于GIS和Markov模型的孟达自然保护区土地利用变化研究

本文以青海省循化孟达自然保护区为试点,以两期土地利用图为基本信息源,利用ArcGIS软件平台建立空间信息库,计算土地利用的Markov转移矩阵,从时间、空间和数量上分析1991～2003年孟达自然保护区土地利用变化状况,预测了2015和2027年的各类土地利用面积变化比重。结果表明:乔木林地和农业用地的变化幅度最大,其中,乔木林地覆盖率明显增大,从1991年的25.58%,到2015年和2027年的44.01%和46.10%;农业用地面积比重明显降低,由1991年的19.05%减小到2015年和2027年的1.81%,1.98%,其余用地变化动态较小。

GIS Based Land-use Pattern Analysis of Mengda Nature Reserve

The paper analyzed and simulated future tendency of the dynamic evolvement of landscape spatial pattern using GIS technology and Markov chain model in Mengda Nature Reserve of Qinghai Province.Land-use maps of two different periods were used as the basic data,which were inputted,edited and stored in the computer under the supporting of ArcGIS system to form a geospatial database.Transition matrix of land-use was calculated and the condition of land-use of Mengda Nature Reserve was analyzed,with the land-use from 2012 to 2027 were predicted.The results showed that forest land and agricultural land had the largest change.The coverage of forest land increased significantly from 25.58% in 1991 to 46.10% in 2027.Agricultural land decreased from 19.05% in1991 to 1.98% in 2027.