气候变化对阿勒泰地区自然植被净第一性生产力的影响

目的]建立阿勒泰地区自然植被净第一性生产力与年平均气温和年降水量的统计关系,在此基础上,估算未来气候变化对自然植被净第一性生产力的可能影响.方法]利用新疆阿勒泰地区7个气象台站1961～2008年的历史气候资料对年平均气温和年降水量变化规律进行统计分析的基础上,采用周广胜等1]的自然植被净第一性生产力模型,计算了近48年阿勒泰地区自然植被净第一性生产力的变化特征.结果]48年来,阿勒泰地区年平均气温以0.475℃/10 a的倾向率上升,降水量以11.495 mm/10 a的倾向率增多,年平均气温和年降水量分别于1975和1986年发生了突变性的上升;受其影响,自然植被净第一性生产力以0.2 t/hm2/10 a的倾向率增长,并于1985年发生了突变性的增大.结论]未来气候的"暖湿化"变化对提高阿勒泰地区自然植被净第一性生产力将产生积极影响,平均而言,在其它条件不变的前提下,年降水量每增多10;,自然植被净第一性生产力将增加7;～9;.年平均气温每升高1℃;自然植被净第一性生产力将增加0.06;～1.56;.

Effects of Climatic Changes on the Net Primary Productivity in Altai Area of Xinjiang

Objective and Method]Based on the data observed by the 7 meteorological stations on the Altai area during 1961-2008,the fundamental change characteristic of annual average temperature and precipitation are analyzed,using the net primary productivity models for natural vegetation made of Zhou Guang-sheng and Zhang Xin-shi,the natural vegetation net primary productivity ( NPP)in Altai area are calculated.Result]The main results showed:(1)The annual average temperature has been in an warming trend by the rate of 0.475℃/10 a,and the annual precipitation variations has been in an increasing trend by the rate of 11.495 mm/10 a in resent 48 years in Altai area.The NPP betweer the annual mean temperature and the annual precipitation has good statistical relations.(2)The sudden change examination indicated that temperature has had the sudden increase in 1975 and precipitation has had the sudden increase in 1986,by their influence,NPP has had the sudden increase in 1985 in Altai area.Conclusion](3) The result of prediction demonstrates that,climate has become warmer and moister which will enhance the natural vegetation net primary productivity in the future in Altai area.In the general,under other unchangeable conditions,along with the annual precipitation increasing by 10%,the NPP will increase by 7%-9%,and along with the annual mean temperature increasing by 1℃,the NPP will increase by 0.06%-1.56%.