南方集体林区林业经济转型水平评价及驱动因素分析

立足当前生态文明建设和林业发展,文中从产业结构转型、劳动力就业结构转型和生态环境建设3方面构建我国南方集体林区林业经济转型指标体系,基于2000—2019年面板数据,运用熵值法测算林业经济转型水平,采用固定效应模型实证探究促进林业经济转型的驱动因素。结果显示:1)南方集体林区林业经济转型水平总体呈上升趋势,转型平均水平从2000年的0.51升至2019年的0.90,林业产业结构和劳动力就业结构趋向合理化转变;2)影响南方集体林区林业经济转型的主要为林业投资、技术水平、森林资源和林业系统工资水平的积极驱动作用,以及林权制度改革的政策冲击和城镇水平提高所产生的一定阻碍作用;3)不同水平下林业经济转型的主要驱动因素存在差异,转型水平较低阶段主要受技术水平、森林资源、人才资源、经济水平、城镇水平和工资水平影响,转型水平较高阶段主要受制度创新、林业投资、森林资源和工资水平影响。森林资源的丰富程度对各方面均会产生影响,森林资源较少地区林业经济转型受制度创新和技术水平影响显著,森林资源较多地区则受技术水平、森林资源、城镇水平和工资水平影响显著。结合南方集体林区林业经济转型发展的现状及实证分析结果,提出应进一步完善林业改革制度配套措施、加快发展第三产业、拓宽资金渠道、提高林业劳动力供给质量等有利于推动林区林业经济转型的对策建议。

Evaluation of Forestry Economic Transformation Level and Its Driving Factors in Collective Forest Regions in Southern China

From the perspectives of the transformations of industrial structure and labor force employment structure, and the construction of ecological environment, an index system of forestry economic transformation in southern collective forest regions was established. Based on the panel data of southern collective forest region from 2000 to 2019, this paper used an entropy method to calculate the level of forestry economic transformation and a fixed effects model to empirically studies the driving factors for promoting the economic transformation of forestry. The results showed that: 1) the overall level of economic transformation of forestry in southern collective forest region manifested an upward trend, and the average level of economic transformation increased from 0.51 in 2000 to 0.90 in 2019, also, the transformations of forestry industry structure and labor force employment structure tended towards rationalization. 2) the forestry economic transformation in southern collective forest regions is mainly driven by the positive effects of forestry investment, technology level, forest resources and the wage level of the forestry system, as well as the hindering effects of policy impact of collective forest tenure reform and development of urban level. 3) the main driving factors of forestry economic transformation under different levels are different, which the lower stage of transformation is affected by the technical level, forest resources, human resources, economic level, urban level and wage level, while the higher stage of transformation is affected by system innovation, forestry investment, forest resources and wage level. The richness of forest resources affects all aspects, which the transformation of forestry economies in the areas with fewer forest resources is significantly affected by institutional innovation and the level of technology, however, that in the areas with more forest resources is significantly affected by technical level, forest resources, urban level and wage level. Combining the present situation of forestry economic transformation and development in southern collective forest region and the results of empirical regression, this study proposes several suggestions to promote the transformation of forestry economy in forest areas, including improving the supporting measures for forestry reform system, accelerating the development of forestry tertiary sector, extending the source of finance, and enhancing the quality of forestry labor supply.