宁南脱贫地区社会-生态系统脆弱性及其影响因素

目的]揭示宁南脱贫地区社会-生态系统脆弱性时空变化趋势，探究其主要驱动因子，进而提出降低系统脆弱性，推动实现脱贫攻坚与乡村振兴有效衔接的对策建议。方法]基于宁南脱贫地区自然、社会经济及土地利用等数据，从暴露度、敏感性和适应力三个维度构建脆弱性评价体系，借助VSD模型开展宁南脱贫地区社会-生态系统脆弱性研究，并地理探测其影响因素。结果]时序上，脆弱性先降后升，其中暴露度与之一致，敏感性先升后降，适应力不断上升。空间上，脆弱性南升北降且高值区不断向南集中而低值区呈南北分散分布，暴露度南升北降且高值区不断向南集中，敏感性南升北降且始终保持南高北低的态势，适应力南北升降变动较大且高值区趋于收敛。地理探测脆弱性主要受农业产值比重(0.681 7)、平均坡度(0.596 5)、城市化水平(0.591 3)、地方财政性收入(0.568 4)和水资源总量(0.523 6)的影响。结论]宁南脱贫地区社会-生态系统脆弱性时空分异显著，自然因素和社会经济因素同时起主导作用，应注重自然条件和社会经济条件的双重改善。

Vulnerability of Social-Ecological System and Its Influencing Factors in the Poverty-Eradication Area in Southern Ningxia

Objective] The aim of this study is to reveal the temporal and spatial trends of the vulnerability of the social-ecological system in the poverty eradication areas in southern Ningxia, explore its main driving factors, and propose countermeasures and suggestions to reduce system vulnerability and promote the effective connection between poverty alleviation and rural revitalization. Methods] Based on the natural, socio-economic and land use data of the poverty-eradication area in southern Ningxia, the vulnerability evaluation index system was constructed from three dimensions of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability, and the social-ecological system vulnerability study in the poverty-eradication area in southern Ningxia was carried out by using the VSD model, as well as the influence factors were explored by using the geographic detection method. Results] In the temporal sequence, vulnerability decreased first and then increased, where exposure was consistent with it, sensitivity increased first and then decreased, and adaptability increased continuously. Spatially, vulnerability increased in the south and decreased in the north, and the high value areas kept concentrated in the south while the low value areas distributed in the north and south. Exposure increased in the south and decreased in the north while the high value areas kept concentrated in the south. Sensitivity increased in the south and decreased in the north and remained high in the south and low in the north. Adaptability fluctuated greatly from north to south and the high value areas tended to converge. The vulnerability of geographical detection was mainly affected by proportion of agricultural output value(0.681 7), average slope(0.596 5), urbanization level(0.591 3), local fiscal income(0.568 4)and total water resources(0.523 6). Conclusion] There are significant spatial and temporal differences in the vulnerability of social-ecological system in the poverty-eradication area of southern Ningxia, where both natural and socio-economic factors play a dominant role, and the improvement of both natural and socio-economic conditions should be emphasized.