我国森林资源增长驱动因素及潜力分析——基于第九次全国森林资源清查结果

森林资源清查在于摸清森林资源现状及其变化规律,为林业政策制定和调整提供参考依据。文中基于第九次全国森林资源清查结果,选取其中有代表性的数量和质量指标,运用比较分析、因果分析和潜力分析的方法,进行森林资源清查前后的纵向比较及国内国际的横向比较;在此基础上,进一步研究森林资源变化的推动力,包括植树造林、生态工程、森林经营、避免灾害、适度采伐、提高科技水平、政策制度,及国内国际"两个市场"等,并从数量空间、质量空间、木材需求、科技水平、政策导向等方面分析森林资源增长的潜力;最后,提出确立清晰的森林经营目标和方向、科学开展大规模国土绿化、重视森林质量和可持续经营、做好资源管理和灾害防治工作、充分利用国内国际"两个市场"等政策建议,以期为森林科学经营和林业资源管理提供决策支持,为推进生态文明建设和实现国家"双碳"目标作出贡献。

Driving Force and Potential of Forest Resource Change: Based on the Results of the Ninth National Forest Resources Inventory

Forest inventory is to understand the current situation and change in forest resources, and provide references for forestry-related policy formulation and amendments. On the basis of the results of the ninth national forest inventory, this paper selects the representative quantity and quality indicators and uses the methods of comparative analysis, causal analysis and potential analysis, to conduct horizontal comparison between before and after the inventory as well as the vertical comparison between national and international forest inventories. It further studies the driving forces of forest resource changes, including afforestation, ecological programs, forest management, disaster prevention, proper logging, technology improvement, policy and institution, and domestic and international markets of forest products, and analyzes the potential in forest resources increases in terms of quantity, quality, demand for timber, science and technology level, and policy orientation. At the end, it puts forward policy recommendations, i.e., setting clear objectives and directions of forest management, carrying out science-based large-scale land greening, attaching importance to forest quality improvement and sustainable forest management, reinforcing resource management and disaster prevention, and making full use of national and international markets, in order to provide decision supports for science-based forest management and forestry governance, and make contributions to the ecological civilization development and the achievement of the "double carbon" goal.