北方冬小麦干旱灾损风险区划

本文基于风险分析的原理，利用北方冬麦区长年小麦产量资料和气象资料，建立了适用于北方冬小麦干旱灾损风险评估的指标体系，包括自然水分亏缺率风险指数、减产率风险指数和抗灾性能趋势向量系数等风险评估指标的意义、表达模式和估算技术、计算和分区。结果表明，北方冬小麦各项风险评估指标均具有明显的区域差异和一定的连

Risk Regionalization of Winter Wheat Loss Caused by Drought in North of China

There are many heavy natural disasters in China which can cause losses to society, economy and agriculture. In all the disasters, agrometeorological disasters account for 60%, in which the drought occurs frequently, especially in spring in North China, and the frequency is about 65%. In order to recovery and alleviate the impact of drought on agriculture, provide science gist to the government and its departments to make decision, and to the insurance department to make sure premium, it is urgent to forecast, evaluate and regionalize agrometeorological disasters and study their spatial-temporal rules. Based on the risk analysis theory, using the long term yield data and meteorological data of winter wheat in north of China, the risk assessment index system of losses caused by drought in winter wheat was established, which included the risk index of water deficiency rate, risk index of yield reduction rate and trending vector coefficient of disaster resistance capability, the estimate technique, calculation and regionalization based on those indices. The results indicated that all the indices had the obvious character of regional difference and connection which could be seen from Fig.1, Fig.2 and Fig.5. Then considering these indices, the comprehensive risk index model of losses caused by drought was established and the comprehensive risk regionalization index was confirmed, according to which, the north of China was divided into four risk regions: the highest, higher, moderate and low(Fig.6). The highest risk region includes the middle north Shaanxi, some of central Shanxi and some of the Cangzhou region in Hebei; the higher risk region includes some area of middle Shanxi, the Tangshan region and some area of the west Hebei; the moderate risk region includes the middle Shaanxi, the south Shanxi, some area of middle east Hebei and the Zibo region in Shandong; the low risk region includes middle and south Shaanxi, the middle and north Henan, Beijing, Tianjin, the most area of middle south Hebei and the most area of Shandong. The models established in this paper has some advantages. The risk index integrates the effects of drought, yield reduction and disaster resistance capability, which includes the risk level under natural climate, as well as the risk level in real production.