基于 TransCAD 的改扩建公路交通量预测影响因素分析

阐述交通量预测“四阶段”法基本步骤。以黑龙江省省道明水至林甸段改扩建公路为例,基于四阶段法,对TransCAD软件在改扩建项目交通量预测中的应用进行分析研究,其中包括未来社会经济发展趋势预测、交通小区的划分及路网的构建、基年OD矩阵反推、未来出行产生、吸引总量预测、未来出行分布预测和交通量分配。结合TransCAD软件对“四阶段”法四个阶段进行逐一分析,提取出影响交通量预测的主要因素。将远景年拟建项目交通分配量作为评价指标,对影响因素进行敏感性分析,得出GDP预测增长率为最敏感因素,基年路段实测交通量次之。故应在今后的预测工作中对基年路段实测车流量调查和GDP预测增长率预测进行分析总结,以确保交通量预测结果的准确性。

Analysis on the Influencing Factors for Reconstructed Highway Traffic Flow Forecasting Based on TransCAD

The basic procedure of traffic volume forecast ＂four stages＂ method is expounded. According to Mingshui to Lindian segment reconstruction highway in Heilongjiang province and based on the four stage method, the application of TransCAD software in traffic flow forecasting is analyzed, including the forecasting of social and economic development in the future, the division of traffic area and the construction of road network, the OD matrix back stepping in the base year, predicting the production and attraction in the future, predicting the distribution in the future, and allocation of traffic flow. Through the analysis on the four stages in combina- tion with TransCAD software, the main influencing factors of the traffic flow forecasting are extracted. Regarding the traffic allocation amount of future planned construction road as evaluation indicators, sensitivity analysis are conducted on the influencing factors. It is concluded that the growth rate of GDP is the most sensitive factor, followed by the measured traffic flow of road in the base year. Therefore, it is suggested to summarize the growth rate of GDP and the survey of the measured traffic flow of road in the base year, in order to ensure the accuracy of traffic flow forecasting.