基于社会燃烧理论的耕地非农化驱动因素分析

中国耕地非农化现象日益明显。基于社会燃烧理论分析了耕地非农化的驱动原理,建立了耕地非农化影响机制模型,并运用SPSS 19.0软件对分类驱动因素进行了主成分及回归分析。结果表明,人均GDP和固定资产投资所占GDP比重等经济发展变量对耕地非农化水平的正向影响最大;粮食单产、总产等农业技术变量对耕地非农化水平具有最大的逆向影响。最后在模型拟合的基础上提出了相应的对策与建议,旨在为合理有效保护耕地提供参考。

Analysis on the Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Conversion Based on Social Burning Theory

The non-agricultural phenomenon of farmland conversion in China is increasingly obvious. Based on social burning theory, the non-agricultural driving principle of cultivated land was analyzed and the non-agricultural influence mechanism model of cultivated land was established, and the principle component analysis and regression analysis for the classified driv-ing factors were performed with SPSS 19.0. The results showed that economic development variables including per capita GDP and the proportion of fixed asset investment in GDP had the greatest positive impact, and the unit yield, total output of grain and the other agricultural technical variables had the greatest adverse effect on the non-agricultural level of cultivated land. Finally, the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions were put forward on the basis of model fitting, in order to provide reference for the reasonable and effective protection of cultivated land.