石家庄市耕地变化及其驱动力分析

为了制定切实可行的耕地保护措施和城乡居民点集约用地标准，应用对比分析和主成分分析法，分析了石家庄市耕地变化特征及其驱动力。结果表明，石家庄市耕地总面积和人均耕地面积呈现减少趋势，减少速率时间和区域差异明显，经济发展速度快的年份和经济发展水平高的县市减少速率大；经济发展是耕地减少的根本动力，人口增长是耕地减少的重要因素，科技进步和复种指数提高补偿了耕地减少的产能损失，国家政策松紧对耕地减少速率具有重要影响；应从控制人口数量、科学规划并严格控制建设用地、加强基本农田保护等方面加强耕地保护，以促进区域人地关系协调发展。

Analysis on Farmland Changes and the Driving Forces in Shijiazhuang

In order to draw up viable farmland protection measures and intensive land use standards of urban and rural settlements,farmland changes and the driving forces were analyzed by comparative analysis and principal component analysis.The results showed that：total arable land and per capita farmland showed a decreasing trend;the reducing rate of cultivated land in fast economic development year was bigger than that of in slow development time,and the counties with high levels of economic development had higher reducing rate than the counties with low levels of economic development;among the factors of farmland reduction,economic development was the fundamental driving factor,population growth was an important one,technological progress and ascension of multiple cropping index compensate for the loss of production capacity of arable land,and the national policy had an important impact on the reduction rate of farmland;protection of farmland should be enhanced from population controlled,the construction land planned scientifically and controlled strictly,and the protection of basic farmland strengthened,etc so that the relationship between human and land coordinates develop in Shijiazhuang.