Estimating habitat suitability and potential population size for brown bears in the Eastern Alps |
| |
Authors: | Denise Güthlin Felix Knauer Thomas Kneib Helmut Küchenhoff Petra Kaczensky Georg Rauer Marko Jonozovi? Andrea Mustoni Klemen Jerina |
| |
Institution: | aDepartment of Statistics, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München, Akademiestr. 1, 80799 Munich, Germany;bDepartement of Wildlife Ecology and Management, University of Freiburg, Tennenbacher Strasse 4, 79106 Freiburg, Germany;cResearch Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine, Savoyenstrasse 1, 1160 Vienna, Austria;dInstitut für Mathematik, Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg, 26111 Oldenburg, Germany;eWildlife and Hunting Department, Slovenia Forest Service, Ve?na pot 2, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia;fParco Naturale Adamello-Brenta, 38080 Strembo (TN), Italy;gDepartment of Forestry, University of Ljubljana, Ve?na pot 83, 1000 Ljubljana, Slovenia |
| |
Abstract: | According to the Habitats Directive of the European Union, a favorable conservation status for the brown bear (Ursus arctos) should be targeted at the population level in large contiguous habitats such as the Alps, the largest mountain range in Europe. However, in most of the Alps brown bears are extinct and habitat suitability in these areas is often questionable. For this paper, radio-tracking data from four projects with 42 individual bears was compiled to assess habitat suitability. Discrete-choice models with random bear effects were fitted and compared to results obtained from compositional analysis and logistic regression. Sound definition of the available area in the discrete-choice model turned out to be essential. Brown bears showed a preference for forested and steep habitats and an avoidance of roads.Results from the three approaches were used to predict habitat suitability across the entire range of the Eastern Alps. Minimum potential population size was projected based on observed densities in Trentino and Central Austria, and ranged from 1228 to 1625 individuals, with 518–686 mature bears. This would satisfy a favorable conservation status. The developed methodology also has wide applicability to quantification of habitat suitability and potential population size in other cases where species are at risk. |
| |
Keywords: | Eastern Alps Ursus arctos Habitat selection Discrete-choice model Potential population size European union habitats directive |
本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录! |
|