| 广州地区黑白花奶牛泌乳曲线数学模型的研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 王前,林玲,林继生. 广州地区黑白花奶牛泌乳曲线数学模型的研究[J]. 畜牧与兽医, 1994, 0(2) |
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| 作者姓名： | 王前 林玲 林继生 |
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| 作者单位： | 广州市奶牛研究所，广东省应用气象研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 本研究根据广州地区黑白花奶牛１１３个完整泌乳期的逐日产奶记录资料，研究了γ函数模型、多项式模型和回归模型的拟合和预报情况。结果表明：上述三个模型对广州地区黑白花奶牛泌乳曲线的拟合效果均不理想。因此，提出一个改进的多项式模型：＾ｙ＝ｋ＿０＋ｋ＿１ｔ＋ｋ＿２ｔ￣２＋ｋ＿３ｌｎｔ＋ｋ＿４ｌｎ￣２ｔ＋ｋ＿５ｅ（￣－１３７．５／ｔ）．加ｅ￣（－１３７．５／ｔ）这一项的目的是对奶牛中后期产奶量进行有效的修正。应用此模型有８０％样本拟合相对误差＜１０％，绝对误差＜５００ｋｇ，复相关系数＞０．９，全部样本均达Ｐ＜０．０１显著水平。
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| 关 键 词： | Wood函数模型；多项式模型；回归模型；产奶量预测；泌乳曲线拟合 |
STUDY ON FITTING MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF LACTATIONCURVE IN BLACK AND WHITE CATTLE IN GUANG ZHOU AREA |
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| Wang Qian,Lin Ling. STUDY ON FITTING MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF LACTATIONCURVE IN BLACK AND WHITE CATTLE IN GUANG ZHOU AREA[J]. Animal Husbandry & Veterinary Medicine, 1994, 0(2) |
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| Authors: | Wang Qian Lin Ling |
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| Abstract: | Milk prduction records from 113 Holstein lactations cows in Guangzhou area were calculated on time us-ing 3 mathematical models. The models included Wood function model.polynomial medel and regression medel.Above three medels are not optimal in Guangzhou area, Therefore, one new modlfied polynomial medel Y=k_0+k_1t+k_2t￣2+k_3lnt+k_4ln￣2t+k_5e￣(-137.5/t)was drawed.Supplemental e￣(-137.5/t) is modlification milk production of middle and lat-ter time.Using the new model fitting showed relatlve error<10%in 80%samples,absolute error<500 kg,muliplecorrelation coefficient>0.9.All samples were P<0.01 significant levels. |
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| Keywords: | Wtood function medel polynomial model regression model milk yield prediction fitting lactation |
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