Modeling the Concentration of Aluminum in Surface Waters

Although the increased mobilization of aluminum from soils to surface waters is widely recognized as one of the most important ecological effects of acidic deposition, lumped-parameter mathematical models of acidification response typically overestimate the change in Al concentration under changing deposition by a considerable margin. The assumption of equilibrium with gibbsite (Al(OH)₃) in the MAGIC model and other models of acid-base chemistry is shown to be inconsistent with measured values for a large variety of lake and stream databases. A modified algorithm for predicting Al concentration, based on empirical relationships evident in field data, provided superior estimates of changes in Al concentration in three long-term monitoring data sets and under experimental conditions at two experimental watershed manipulation sites.