县域耕地资源利用变化与保护对策研究—以垦利县为例

耕地是人类宝贵的自然资源，是农业生产的基础，对粮食安全、经济发展和社会稳定至关重要。以垦利县为例，分析了县域耕地资源的数量与质量变化趋势，并对未来耕地资源的供需状况进行了预测。结果表明，1996--2005年垦利县耕地资源数量总体呈减少趋势，耕地质量总体下降。预测结果显示2020年耕地资源的供给已不能满足粮食安全对耕地的需求。因此，保护现有耕地就是保护人类的生命线。最后提出了耕地资源合理利用与保护的对策建议。

Study on Cultivated Land Resources Changes and Protection Strategies in County-LevelA Case Study of Kenli County

Cultivated land is the valuable natural resources and the base of agriculture production, it is very im-portant to food safety, economic development and society stability. This paper takes Kenli County of Shandong Province as an example, analyzes the trend in the change of cultivated land, and carries out forecast for cultivat-ed land demand quantity and supply quantity. The results indicate that cultivated land quantity decreased and cultivated land quality declined as a whole from 1996 to 2005. The forecast results confirm that the supplying quantity of cultivated land can not suffice food safety. So, protecting the existing cultivated land is to protect our lifeline. This paper put forwards the strategies for protecting cultivated land in the end.