浙江省晚稻生产的农业气象灾害风险分布

采用浙江省52县市1971-2004年的晚稻单产资料,利用平均减产率、变异系数和单项风险指数形成的综合风险指数,划分了浙江省晚稻产量的农业气象灾害风险区域,并结合同期历史资料详细分析了各风险区的气温、降水和灾害情况,利用各区晚稻种植面积和产量占全省比例的差值分析了各风险区域气象条件的影响效果。结果表明：综合风险指数≥0.30的风险区,晚稻总产量与面积占全省百分比的差值均为负值,该区域晚稻历年遭受台风、干旱等农业气象灾害的频率较高,产量不稳定,年际减产幅度大或减产年份较多;综合风险指数在0.20-0.30的风险区,差值在零值上下浮动,年际减产幅度较小,产量相对稳定;综合风险指数〈0.20的风险区,差值均为正,遭受农业气象灾害的频率较低,丰年多于歉年,总体增产明显。分析结果可为保险部门制定保险区划、费率厘定提供科学依据。

A Study on Spatial Distribution of Agro-meteorological Disaster Risk of Late Rice Production in Zhejiang Province

Based on the data of late rice yields from 1971 to 2004 in 52 counties of Zhejiang Province, the integrate risk index （IRI） based on average yield reduction ratio, the variation coefficient, the risk index were calculated to classify late rice yield losses in the agro-meteorological risk regions, The temperature, precipitation and disasters data mainly related to the agro-meteorological disaster during the rice growing period was identified, The variability of the rice yield were analyzed for the different risk regions. The results indicated that in the regions where IRI was with 〉 0.3 there were largest losses on the annual yield ; In the regions where IRI ranged from 0.20 to 0, 30, the yield was stable, In the areas where the IRI was with 〈 0, 20 there were more bumper harvest years than poor harvest years, These results would provide scientific gist for the insurance company by establishing insurance regions and fee-ratio.