Assessment of changes in the ichthyofauna in a tropical reservoir in south-eastern Brazil: Consequences of global warming?

Increases in temperatures over the last century, more intensively after the eighties, were recorded in several databases for the south-eastern Brazil. These increases are likely to change fish communities in aquatic systems by decreasing abundances, biomass and sizes of some species more sensitive to climate change. Reservoirs may be particularly susceptible to the effects of climate change, as they isolate previously connected areas limiting fish dispersal and migration, as well as increasing water temperature and thermal stratification. We assessed temporal changes in the abundance and biomass of the ichthyofauna in an isolate reservoir (inflowing waters from small tributaries in a highland region) aiming to associate changes with climate effects over three decades (1990, 2000, 2010). Two abundant native species, a loricariid Loricariichthys castaneus (Castelnau, 1855) and a cichlid Geophagus brasiliensis (Quoy & Gaimard, 1824), were selected to assess eventual response to climate changes in their geographical distribution in the Southeast Atlantic Hydrographic Region, considering different carbon emission scenarios using ecological niche models. A decrease in the densities and biomass of the ichthyofauna and of the two selected species were observed in both summer and winter over the three decades, coinciding with increases in temperatures. These decreases were correlated with increases in positive anomalies of temperature, which may be an indicator of climatic changes, although with low explanation of the data variation. The mean size of L. castaneus decreased between the nineties and 2010, whereas no significant trend was found for the size of G. brasiliensis. Our predictions of new area for future adequacy indicated a loss in the distribution area for both species (mainly for G. brasiliensis), considering the most pessimistic scenario for 2050 and 2070, possibly due to climatic changes. Both hydroelectric dams and global warming pose threats to freshwater fish diversity, and both will interact. Changes observed in the fish assemblage over the last decades were essential for an assessment of the consequences of global warming in this type of reservoir combining larger scale studies with future projections.