孔雀河流域水资源需求预测分析

孔雀河流域是典型的干旱内陆河流域,水资源是其经济发展和生态环境建设最主要的制约因素。该文基于现状年2005年的社会经济数据,运用定额法预测了2015年研究区的各行业需水量,进而确定水资源供需平衡关系。研究表明:(1)到2015年,流域总需水量及工业、农业、生活、生态环境的需水量均呈明显的增加趋势,其中工业需水量的增加比例达到了近90%,增加额为2.865亿m3,而相比2005年农业灌溉用水增加了2.93亿m3,农业灌溉用水量增加了近35.8%,生态用水增加约0.5亿m3。(2)到2015年流域农业用水占水资源总量的61%以上,与2005年相比减少9%,工业需水占水资源总量的18%,增幅明显,而生态需水占19%,与2005年相比减少6个百分点。(3)流域2015年供需差额将达5.701亿m3,缺水程度为30.5%,供需矛盾将进一步激化。为此,研究提出了解决该区域水资源供需矛盾的对策和建议,为区域水资源的合理开发和优化配置以及社会经济的可持续发展提供决策参考。

Analysis of Water Resources Prediction on Kongque River Basin

Kongque river basin is a typical arid inland river, the water resources is its economic development and ecological environment construction of the main restricting factors. This paper, based on the current situation social and economic data of 2005, using the quota method forecast the water demand in the area in 2015 industries, and then determine the balance relationship between supply and demand. Research shows that： （ 1 ） to 2015 year, watershed total water demand and life, ag- riculture, industry, ecological environment, all are in obvious increase trend, The industrial water demand increase propor- tion to nearly 90%, accrual for 286.5 million cubic meters, and compared with 2005 agricultural irrigation water increased by 293 million cubic meters, and increased almost 35.8% , ecological water increase of about 50 million cubic meters. （2） to 2015 agricultural water demand accounts for 61% of the total water resources, compared with 2005 decreased by 9%, in- dustrial water demand accounts for 18% , a dramatic rise, and ecological water requirement is occupied 19%, compared with 2005 decreased by six percent. （3） valley 2015 balance of supply and demand will reach 570.1 million cubic meters, the water level is 30.5%. The contradiction between supply and demand will be intensified. Finally in this analysis is pro- posed on the basis of regional water resources to solve the contradiction between supply and demand of the and Suggestions for the development of regional economy, the sustainable development of water resources to provide decision basis.