基于ISM模型的土地流转风险评价

运用ISM模型评价了土地流转的风险。研究结果表明：（1）土地流转的风险源为：农用地面积的变化程度、农产品产量的变化程度、农产品价格的波动程度、地膜使用量的变化程度、农药使用量的变化程度和化肥使用量的变化程度，其中最核心的风险源为农用地面积和农产品产量的变化程度以及农产品价格的波动程度。（2）土地流转的风险级别为：L1是最高层次风险为群体性事件数量上升率；L2为第二层次风险是基尼系数变化程度和城市压力指数增长率；L3为第三层次风险是农民收入变化程度和流动人口增长率；L4为第四层次风险为失业率的变化程度；L5为第五层次分险是农民失地指数增长率；L6为最底层风险是农用地面积和农产品产量的变化程度、农产品价格的波动程度以及地膜、农药和化肥使用量的变化程度。（3）控制土地流转风险的主要措施为：严格落实土地利用总体规划，控制流转土地用途的转变；充分利用农业补贴制度，调控农产品的产量和价格；合理使用地膜、农药和化肥。

Evaluation of the Risk of Land Circulation Based on ISM Model

Using the ISM model, we studied the risks of land circulation. The results showed that:(1) the variation degree of agriculture land, agriculture output, agriculture product prices and plastic film,pesticide,fertilizer usage changes are the source of land circulation,which the most core are variation degree of agriculture land,agriculture output and agriculture product prices. (2)The level risks of land circulation include:L1 is the risk factors of mass incidents which is the highest level of risk; L2 is the risk factors of the variation degree of geordie coefficient and the growth rate of urban pressure index which is the second level of risk; L3 is the risk factors of the variation degree of farmers' income and the growth rate of floating population which is the third level of risk; L4 is the risk factors of the variation degree of unemployment rate which is the fourth level of risk; L5 is the risk factors of the growth rate of farmers lost land index which is the fifth level of risk; L6 is the risk factors of the variation degree of agriculture land,agriculture output,agriculture product prices and plastic film,pesticide and fertilizer usage changes which is the lowest level of risk. (3) The main measures to control land circulation risks include:strict implementation of general land use planning, control the circulation land changing of use, make full use of agricultural subsidy system, regulating the production of agricultural products and prices; rational use of plastic film,pesticide and fertilizer.