Habitat suitability, threats and conservation of isolated populations of the smooth snake (Coronella austriaca) in the southern Iberian Peninsula

During the Pleistocene, climatic fluctuations due to glacial and interglacial periods greatly modified the distribution of boreal organisms. One direct effect of these distribution shifts is that, along the southern edge of the range of some boreal species, populations persist only in isolated patches of suitable habitats, surrounded by less suitable areas. Isolated populations in marginal habitat are vulnerable to several threats, including climate change, anthropogenic threats, and stochastic events. We developed habitat-suitability models using Ecological Niche Factor Analysis for populations of the smooth snake, Coronella austriaca, at the southernmost limit of the species range. These models were based on historical and current records of occurrence, coupled with remote sensing data including elevation, slope, and climatic variables. Our results indicated that C. austriaca in the Iberian Peninsula occurred in areas associated with high slope and precipitation, low temperatures, and low variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation compared to areas of non-occurrence. At a broad scale, the areas classified as highly suitable for the species in the southern Iberian Peninsula were small and fragmented. At a local scale, extensive field work demonstrated that C. austriaca occurs in low densities in these areas. In addition, we detected several human-induced threats like habitat loss, favoured by temperature increase and rainfall reduction. Several life-history traits, such as dietary specialization and low frequency reproduction, also may contribute to the vulnerability of these populations to local extinctions. Although the most suitable southernmost areas are included in protected reserves, specific guidelines for management are needed to assess conservation needs.