Microcomputer programs for markov and modified markov chain disease models |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Animal Science, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Av. Colombo, 5790, 87020-900, Maringá, Paraná, Brazil;2. Food Science Post-Graduate Program, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Av. Colombo, 5790, 87020-900, Maringá, Paraná, Brazil;3. Safeeds Animal Nutrition, BR 467, Rua Marginal, 21, 85822-000, Cascavel, Paraná, Brazil;4. Department of Exact and Natural Sciences, Universidade Estadual do Sudoeste da Bahia, BR 415, 45700-000, Itapetinga, Bahia, Brazil;5. Department of Basic Health Sciences, Universidade Estadual de Maringá, Av. Colombo, 5790, 87020-900 Maringá, Paraná, Brazil;1. Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago, Chile;2. Facultad Tecnológica, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile;3. Facultad de Ingeniería, Universidad de Santiago de Chile, Santiago, Chile;4. Centro de Estudios en Ecología Espacial y Medio Ambiente, Ecogeografía, Santiago, Chile;5. Centro de Estudios de Conflicto y Cohesión Social (COES), Santiago, Chile;6. Centre for Climate Resilient Animal Adaptation Studies, ICAR-National Institute of Animal Nutrition and Physiology, Adugodi, Bangalore-560030, India;7. Departamento de Ecología, Center of Applied Ecology and Sustainability (CAPES), Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, Santiago 6513677, Chile;8. Universidad de Santiago de Chile (USACH), Facultad Tecnológica, Departamento de Gestión Agraria, Chile;1. Center for Studies of Information Resources, Wuhan University, Bayi Rd 299, Wuhan 430072, China;2. School of Information Management, Wuhan University, Bayi Rd 299, Wuhan 430072, China;3. School of Library and Information Studies, University of Oklahoma, Norman 73019, USA;4. Department of Information Management, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Xiaolingwei St. 200, Nanjing 210094, China |
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| Abstract: | Two simulation models were created using an electronic spreadsheet. The models, IV and V, were developed from a multi-agent mastisis example and assumed Markov and modified Markov chain processes, respectively. Model IV simulated disease occurrence in which the probability of transmission remained constant. Model V simulated disease occurrence in a population which had constant state transition probability rates, except for those of a single agent, which were assumed to be dynamic and follow the assumptions of the classic Reed-Frost model. The methodology developed for these models should be easily adopted to other disease problems in either human or veterinary medicine. |
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