水资源与经济要素匹配对农业用水效率的影响——基于新疆的经验分析

为了探讨新疆水资源与经济发展要素的匹配程度及其对新疆农业水利用效率的而影响。通过统计2004-2013年新疆水资源、经济发展水平、人口增长和耕地面积等数据,运用基尼系数、农区水利用综合系数和时间序列模型进行了实证检验,结果表明新疆水资源与经济发展和耕地面积的匹配度处于"相对平均"的阶段,而新疆水资源与人口增长的匹配度处于"两极分化"阶段。新疆水资源匹配度与新疆农业水利用之间存在着长期稳定的关系,新疆水资源和耕地面积的匹配度与新疆农业水利用效率呈双向因果关系,但是新疆农业水利用效率与新疆水资源和经济发展、人口增长的匹配度之间只存在着单向的因果关系。

Effects of Matching Degree between Water Resources and Economic Factors on Agriculture Water Use Efficiency A Case Study in Xinj iang

The paper is aiming to study the matching degree between water resources and economic development factors in Xinjiang and its influence on the agricultural water use efficiency.Through analyzing the statistics data of water resources,economic develop-ment level,population increase and arable land,and so on,an empirical test is conducted by employing Gini coefficient,comprehen-sive agricultural water use coefficient and time series model.The results show that the matching degree among water resources,eco-nomic development and arable land in Xinjiang is at the relative average phase,while the matching degree between water resources and population increase is at the stage of“two levels of differentiation”.There is long-term and stable relationship between water re-sources and agricultural water resources.The agricultural water use efficiency has two-way causality relationship with the matching degree between water resources and arable land in Xinj iang,but it only has one-way causality relationship with the matching degree among water resources,economic development,and population increase.