黄土高原马铃薯晚疫病发生发展与气象条件关系的研究—以甘肃定西市为例

应用1991-2005年马铃薯晚疫病发生地点、面积、发展趋势等资料,结合气象要素观测资料,采用数理统计方法,分析马铃薯晚疫病发生发展及其与气象条件的关系。结果表明:研究区域马铃薯晚疫病历年发病面积比例呈显著上升趋势,发病面积比例以每年3.5437%的速度增加。马铃薯晚疫病发病面积比例与5~10月马铃薯生长季相对湿度、降水量、气温等呈正相关,而与日照时数、平均风速呈负相关。当可控条件一定时,气象条件是马铃薯晚疫病发生发展的主导因素。本文建立了马铃薯晚疫病发病面积比例气候预测模型,为马铃薯晚疫病的积极防治及科学决策提供了依据。

Relationships between development of potato late blight and the meteorological conditions on the Loess Plateau:a case study on Dingxi of Gansu Province

Based on the data of potato late blight observation,the meteorological data in 7 weather stations and the data of growth periods in different distracts during 1991-2005,and the characteristics of potato late blight development and its relation with meteorological data were analyzed by using statistical methods.The results showed that the potato late blight displayed marked ascending trend,and the influence rate of potato late blight in the field was 3.543 7% per year.The percentage of potato late blight incidences showed positive correlation with relative humidity,precipitation and temperature during potato growth periods in May and September,but had a negative correlation with sunshine duration and average wind velocity.The meteorological conditions were the dominant element as determined by controlled experiments.The model to forecast the percentage of potato late blight incidences was established,which helps carry out some active prevention measures and make scientific decisions.