基于地统计学的三化螟种群时间格局分析

 为探索三化螟种群时间格局并为预测建模提供信息，对常德市鼎城区1960～1990年三化螟冬后及各世代幼虫高峰虫量的时间序列资料进行了地统计学分析，结果表明三化螟年间总虫量、第1代、第3代和越冬后虫量序列数据结构性较强，可预测性较好；世代间幼虫高峰虫量和年间第2代虫量序列数据的结构性较弱，第4代虫量基本是随机性的。三化螟虫量发生无长期趋势，间歇性发生特点较为明显；世代间幼虫高峰虫量呈现4代（1年）的季节性周期。采用缺失或插入法分析了各世代虫量和冬后基数对整个世代间虫量数据系列的重要程度，结果表明第2代和第3代虫量对整个世代间虫量数据系列有一定影响，而冬后基数和第1代、第4代虫量的影响甚微，三化螟发生量更多地受栽培制度、气候、食料和天敌等因子的影响。初步总结并建立了种群时间格局分析的地统计学方法。

Geostatistical Analysis on the Temporal Patterns of the Yellow Rice Borer, Tryporyza incertulas

In order to comprehend temporal pattern of the larvae population of the yellow rice borer, Tryporyza incertulas, and provide valuable information for its forecast, the data series of the population for each generation and the over-(wintering) larvae from 1960 to 1990 in Dingcheng District, Changde City, Hunan Province, were analyzed by geostatistics. The data series of total number, the 1st generation, the 3rd generation and the over-wintering larvae year to year displayed rather better autocorrelation and prediction. The data series of generation to generation, the 2nd generation and the 4th (generation) year to year, however, demonstrated poor autocorrelation, especially for the 4th generation, with degree of (autocorrelation) being zero. The population dynamics of the yellow rice borer was obviously intermittent. A remarkable cycle of four generations in one year was observed in the population of generation to generation. Omitting the certain generation or (interposing) the over-wintering larvae in analysis of population dynamics only resulted in a less or slight change in (autocorrelation) of the whole data series of generation to generation. Crop system, food, climate and nature enemies, therefore, played more important roles in regulating the population dynamics than base number of the larvae. The basic (techniques) of geostatistics applied in analyzing temporal population dynamics were outlined.