内蒙古温暖与寒冷指数在气温突变前后异常变化特征

通过分析内蒙古地区1961-2016年温暖指数(warmth index)和寒冷指数(coldness index),得出该区域平均和突变前后指数的时空分布。结果表明:突变前WI和CI倾向率局地镶嵌分布,整体以上升趋势为主;突变后WI倾向率以上升为主,CI以下降为主。在气候变暖大背景下,气温突变后内蒙古东部区CI呈整体降低趋势,表明气候在变暖同时东部区冷季也在变冷,地区气候两极化趋势明显,存在明显的"冷暖急转"的现象。5 a滑动平均结果表明,暖季热量增加相对稳定,而冷季热量增减波动较大,进入21世纪CI呈下降趋势,比WI提前10 a进入下降阶段。内蒙古东部区CI指数倾向率在气温突变后呈明显的区域下降趋势,而在中西部区呈上升和下降的镶嵌格局。

Abnormal Change of Warmth Index and Coldness Index before and after Temperature Mutation in Inner Mongolia

In this paper,the warmth index(WI)and coldness index(CI)in Inner Mongolia from 1961 to 2016 were analyzed,and the spatiotemporal distribution of these indexes and their changes before and after the temperature mutation were concluded.The results showed that the tendency rates of WI and CI were distributed in an inlaid pattern before the temperature mutation;after the temperature mutation,the tendency rate of WI was mainly in an increase trend,but that of CI was mainly in a decrease trend.In the context of climate warming,the CI in Inner Mongolia was holistically decreased after the temperature mutation,which revealed that it also became colder in cold season in east Inner Mongolia under the climate warming,and there were the sharp changes of both warmth and coldness.The five-year a moving average results showed that the heat increase in warm season was relatively stable,but the heat increase or decrease in cold season fluctuated obviously.The CI was in a decrease trend since the 21 st century,and such decrease occurred 10 years earlier than that of WI.The tendency of CI in east Inner Mongolia was significantly decreased after the temperature mutation,and the tendency rates of WI and CI were distributed in an inlaid pattern in the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia.