| 基于ARMAV模型的国内海洋捕捞与海水养殖产量的分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张丽梅,王雪标,李久奇,王博.基于ARMAV模型的国内海洋捕捞与海水养殖产量的分析[J].大连水产学院学报,2011,26(2):157-161. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张丽梅 王雪标 李久奇 王博 |
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| 作者单位： | 大连海洋大学理学院;东北财经大学数学与数量经济学院;大连海洋大学海洋工程学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金资助项目(10771028) |
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| 摘 要： | 为了揭示国内海洋捕捞和海水养殖产量的相关关系,准确地跟踪并预测海洋捕捞和海水养殖产量的短期未来趋势,利用时序分析方法对1954—2006年国内海洋捕捞和海水养殖产量数据建立了多维自回归滑动平均（ARMAV）模型。该方法不仅避免了分别使用自回归滑动平均（ARMA）模型对两序列建模未考虑序列间关系的弊端,还通过数据的先期平稳化处理而使得算法的运用更具有针对性。图像与误差计算结果均表明,用本研究中给出的ARMAV（2,1,2）算法对两序列进行跟踪及预测具有效性。
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| 关 键 词： | 海洋捕捞产量 海水养殖产量 平稳性 多维自回归滑动平均（ARMAV）模型 |
The analysis of marine capture production and mariculture production in China by ARMAV models |
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| ZHANG Li-mei,WANG Xue-biao,LI Jiu-qi,WANG Bo.The analysis of marine capture production and mariculture production in China by ARMAV models[J].Journal of Dalian Fisheries University,2011,26(2):157-161. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Li-mei WANG Xue-biao LI Jiu-qi WANG Bo |
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| Institution: | ZHANG Li-mei1,WANG Xue-biao2,LI Jiu-qi3,WANG Bo3(1.School of Science,Dalian Ocean University,Dalian 116023,China,2.College of Math and Quantitative Economics,Dongbei University of Finance & Economics,Dalian 116025,3.School of Marine Environmental Engineering,China) |
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| Abstract: | The auto-regressive moving average vector(ARMAV) models are established by the data of marine capture production and mariculture production in China from 1954 to 2006 to reveal the relationship between the marine capture production and mariculture production in China,tracking and forecasting accurately the short-term trend in future.The use of the ARMAV models here not only prevents the sickness of un-touching the relationship between the marine capture production and the mariculture production when using a... |
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| Keywords: | marine capture production mariculture production smoothness auto-regressive moving average vector(ARMAV) model |
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