Ecological correlates of bluetongue virus in Spain: predicted spatial occurrence and its relationship with the observed abundance of the potential Culicoides spp. vector

Using data from bluetongue (BT) outbreaks caused by viral serotype 4 (BTV-4) in Spain during 2004–2005, a predictive model for BTV-4 occurrence in peninsular Spain was developed. An autologistic regression model was employed to estimate the relationships between BTV-4 presence and bioclimatic-related and host-availability-related variables. In addition, the observed abundances of the main potential Culicoides vectors during 2004–2005, namely Culicoides imicola, Culicoides obsoletus group, and species of the Culicoides pulicaris group, were compared between BTV-4 presence/absence areas predicted by the model.BTV-4 occurrence was mainly explained by bioclimatic variables, although a consideration of host-availability variables led to improved fit of the model. The area of BTV-4 presence predicted by the model largely resembled the core distribution area of C. imicola, and this species was the most abundant Culicoides spp. in predicted BTV-4 presence areas. The results suggest that the spatial expansion of BTV-4 took place only as far as those areas in which C. imicola populations efficiently transmitted the virus.