| 河北省棉花生产波动实证研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 张润清,马腾.河北省棉花生产波动实证研究[J].河北农业科学,2007,11(3):109-111. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张润清 马腾 |
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| 作者单位： | 河北农业大学经济贸易学院,河北,保定,071001;河北农业大学经济贸易学院,河北,保定,071001 |
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| 摘 要： | 运用图示法、趋势分解法和最小二乘法的方法,从植棉技术水平和棉农植棉意愿2方面,对1990～2006年河北省棉花生产波动状况进行了实证分析研究.结果表明:河北省棉花生产的波动性很强,在不考虑其他因素情况下,棉农的植棉意愿是影响棉花生产波动的主要因素.提出了稳定发展棉花生产的政策建议.
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| 关 键 词： | 河北省 棉花生产 波动 实证研究 |
| 文章编号： | 1008-1631（2007）03-0109-03 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-06-03 |
The Empirical Research of Fluctuation in Cotton Production in Hebei Province |
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| ZHANG Run-qing,MA Teng.The Empirical Research of Fluctuation in Cotton Production in Hebei Province[J].Journal of Hebei Agricultural Sciences,2007,11(3):109-111. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Run-qing MA Teng |
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| Institution: | College of Economic and Trade, Hebei Agricultural University, Baoding 071001, China |
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| Abstract: | By using graphic method, time-trend method and least-square method, an empirical research on the fluctuation in cotton production in Hebei since 1990 in two aspects of planting technology and inclination were taken. The results showed that the cotton production has been fluctuating frequently and the inclination of planting cotton is the primary factor influencing cotton production in the condition of ignoring other factors. In the end, some suggestions are brought forward, such as increasing technology inputs, strengthening technology popularization, keeping a stable market and reducing costs, implementing effective subsidies and so on. |
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| Keywords: | Hebei Province Cotton production Fluctuation Empirical research Suggestions |
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