农机化发展的灰色系统预测模型研究

摘 要 采用灰色系统预测模型对农机化发展问题进行了探讨,通过分析认为,灰色系统预测模型具有某些独到的优点。将定性分析及灰色关联分析的结果作为选择进入模型的数据数及修正模型的依据。采用了“线性化处理”及“分段建模”的方法,初步解决了在建立模型时所遇到的GM(1,N)模型的系数不符合定性分析及许多自主因子的较长时期发展过程不能用同一个GM(1,1)模型描述的问题。

A Study on the Grey System Predicting Models in Agricultural Mechanization Development

In this paper, the grey system predicting models were used n the preliminary analysis and study of some developing problems in agricultural mechanization. Based on the comparative analysis, the models are considered to have some characteristic advantages. The results of qualitative analysis and grey relevant analysis were taken as one of the bases to select the data to be fed into the GM ( 1,1 ) models and to verify GM ( 1,1 ) models. In addition, two problems occured in the process of establishing system predicting models were preliminarily solved by means of lincrization handling' and 'establi-shing models in different periods' .