河北省棉花黄萎病的地域分布及预测

在调查了邯郸、邢台、衡水、石家庄、沧州、保定、廊坊等６５个市县棉花黄萎病发生情况的基础上，根据相对病情指数的大小，结合各市县棉花自然播种面积，将河北省中南部棉花黄萎病发生区分成重病、中度和轻病３类。并根据棉花黄萎病自１９８６年到１９９４年的发生情况进行查档发现，黄萎病病因逐年上升。根据时间序列二次指数平滑法预测表明，１９９５年棉花黄萎病病四百分率逐将增加，随着棉田面积的逐渐加大，黄萎病对生产的潜在威胁应引起高度重视。

Study on the Distribution and Forecast of Verticillium Wilt of Cotton in Hebei

The occurence of Verticiltium wilt of cotton in 65 counties which lie in the main cotton-growing area of Hebei was investigated in August growing area, three zones were classified: (1) The area of main damage: The first area includes Quzhou, Guantao, Qiuxian, Handan, Yongnian, Jize, Feixiang, Chengan and Shahe counties. The second one includes the area which is surrounded by Hengshui, Fucheng and Yaoyang counties. (2)area of light damage. The first area lies in Cangzhou district which includes Qingxian,Huanghua, Dongguang and Wuqiao , The second one includes the whole of Shexian, Fuping and Laiyuan and western part of Wuan, Shahe , Xingtai, Neiqiu, Lincheng, Zanhuang, Yuanshi, Jingxing, Huailu, pingshan, Lingshou, Xingtang, Quyang, Shunping,Tangxian, Mancheng, Yixian and laishui counties. (3) The area of moderate damage: All the other counties in southern part of Hebei cxcept the counties mentioned above belong to this area. Based on the date about the occurence of Verticillium wilt from 1986 to 1994, it is easy to know that the disease is becoming severe gradually. By mathematic model analysis, following the increase of cotton-growing area,the disease will be even worse in 1995.Different controlling strategies were proposed to each kind of area.