沂河流域天然径流变化规律分析

根据沂河主要控制站-临沂站1958~2000年共43a的天然径流资料，采用线性倾向估计法、Mann-Kendall法和小波分析法等方法分析了临沂站天然径流年际变化的趋势性和周期性。选取天然径流年内分配的不均匀系数、完全调节系数、集中度、集中期和绝对变化幅度等指标分析了径流年内分配特征。最终获得了临沂站天然径流年际变化规律、年内分配特征，可为沂河流域水资源的合理开发、利用、优化配置和可持续发展提供一定的参考依据。

Analysis about the variation of natural runoff at Yi River Basin

According to the 43-year natural runoff time series from 1958 to 2000 of Linyi Station which is the main control station of Yi River, the inter-annual trend and periodicity are analyzed by using the linear tendency estimate method, Mann-Kendall method and wavelet analysis method. Then the characteristic indexes such as unevenness coefficient, complete accommodation coefficient, concentration degree, concentration period and absolute variation amplitude are selected to analyze the characteristics of the intra-annual runoff distribution. At last, the characteristics of inter-annual variation and intra-annual distribution of natural runoff at Linyi Station are obtained, in some degree, which can provide estimable basis for the reasonable exploitation, utilization, optimized allocation and sustainable development of the water resources of Yi River Basin.