近50a来黄河流域温度和降水基本特征和变化趋势分析

利用黄河流域87个代表气象站1961－2010年的逐日温度和降水观测资料，采用算术平均、线性倾向估计、滑动平均方法对流域年、季和年代际温度和降水特点和变化趋势进行分析。结果表明：流域多年平均温度为6.96℃，总体呈东高西低、南高北低的空间分布特征。年平均温度呈明显上升趋势，线性倾向率为0.03℃/a；流域季节温度均呈明显增加趋势，冬季温度增加较为明显，夏季温度增加相对较低。流域多年平均降水为448mm，降水空间分布由东南向西北呈带状递减趋势。流域年平均降水呈不显著的增加趋势，线性倾向率为-0.97mm/a，流域季节降水增减变化趋势不明显，变化较为复杂。

Characteristics and variation trends of temperature and precipitation in the Yellow River basin during 1961-2010

Based on the observed daily temperature and precipitation of 87 representative meteorological stations from 1961 to 2010, annual, seasonal, and decadal characteristics and variation trends of temperature and precipitation in the Yellow River basin were analyzed by using statistical methods of average, linear trend and moving average. The results show that the annual mean temperature is 6.96℃ in the Yellow River basin. The temperature in the east presents higher than in the west, and the temperature in the south is higher than in the north. The variation in annual mean temperature presents a fluctuating upward trend at a trend ratio of 0.03℃/a. The temperature increased more significantly in winter than in summer. The annual mean precipitation is 448mm in the Yellow River basin. The spatial distribution of the precipitation presents a decreasing trend from the southeast to the northwest. The annual mean precipitation takes on a non-significant decreasing trend at a trend rates of 0.97mm/a. The seasonal variation trends of increase or decrease are not obvious, which is more complex.