| 磨盘山水库总氮、总磷变化倾向的灰预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 刘春颖,翟平阳,孔德勇,鄂勇.磨盘山水库总氮、总磷变化倾向的灰预测[J].东北农业大学学报,2008,39(11). |
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| 作者姓名： | 刘春颖 翟平阳 孔德勇 鄂勇 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 东北农业大学资源与环境学院,哈尔滨,150030
2. 黑龙江省环境保护科学研究院,哈尔滨,150056 |
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| 基金项目： | 黑龙江省科技重大攻关项目子课题 |
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| 摘 要： | 氮和磷是磨盘山水库水体非点源污染最主要的污染物。根据汇入水库的支流水体中TN、TP的历年实际监测结果,可以模拟虚构历年水库水体中TN、TP的浓度,并以此作为灰预测所需数据,运用灰色模型预测水库水质TN、TP的变化倾向。经4种检验证明,建立的GM(1,1)模型精度较高,预测结果与实际监测浓度接近。从利用单一的GM(1,1)模型和GM(1,1)模型群预测比较可以看出,以模型群统计平均值作为最终预测值,使得预测精度更加准确,提高了预测结果的可信度,从而避免由于信息不稳定性在单一灰色模型所造成的缺陷。
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| 关 键 词： | 水库 TN TP 灰预测 GM(1 1)模型 |
Forecasting on change tendency of TN and TP in water of Mopanshan reservoir by Gray Model |
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| LIU Chunying,ZHAI Pingyang,KONG Deyong,E Yong.Forecasting on change tendency of TN and TP in water of Mopanshan reservoir by Gray Model[J].Journal of Northeast Agricultural University,2008,39(11). |
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| Authors: | LIU Chunying ZHAI Pingyang KONG Deyong E Yong |
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| Institution: | LIU Chunying1,ZHAI Pingyang2,KONG Deyong1,E Yong1 (1. Resources , Environmental Sciences College,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China,2. Heilongjiang Institute of Environmental Protection Research,Harbin 150056,China) |
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| Abstract: | The nitrogen and phosphorus are main non-point sources pollutants in the water of Mopanshan reservoir. The total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in the water of Mopanshan reservoir were simulated using the actual TN and TP concentrations in the three monitor sections of input rivers of Mopanshan reservoir during recent years. It was feasible to forecast the changes in tendency of TN and TP concentrations in reservoir by mathematical GM(1, 1) established based on the simulated concentr... |
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| Keywords: | TN 11P |
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