金华站预报方案建模及洪水预报系统研制

随着人类活动的加剧,金华江流域下垫面情况发生了很大变化,原有预报方案很难反映金华站洪水规律。从这一点出发,重新制定金华站洪水预报方案,将重要水利工程考虑到方案中,并在资料选取、预报根据站选择,以及参数率定的过程中充分论证,采用合理的方法消除资料不足、面雨量计算及土壤初值等误差因素对方案的干扰,取得了较为满意的效果。最后,采用组态化的免编程技术,建设金华站洪水预报系统,提高金华站洪水预报服务能力。

Modeling and Development of Flood Forecasting System of Jinhua Station

As Jinhua river basin has been greatly changed by human activities, the original forecast scheme is difficult to reflect the flood law of Jinhua Station. From this point, the flood forecasting scheme of Jinhua station is re-established by taking into account the major water pro-ject. With a full analysis and demonstration, a reasonable approach was used in data selection, rainfall station selection, and calibration to avoid error influence of insufficient data, areal rainfall calculation and initial moisture content of soil on scheme;the results were satisfactory. At last, the flood forecasting system of Jinhua Station was built by using configurable technology, which could improve the flood forecasting service ability of Jinhua Station.