山西省降水特征和玉米产量变化分析

目的]探究自然降水对玉米产量影响。方法]采用滑动平均法和线性回归等进行分析。结果]山西省年平均降水量以9.3mm/10a的速度在减少,降水极端偏少的年份在近15年来出现的概率较大;春季降水量总体变化不太明显但呈略增趋势,夏季以8.5mm/10a速度递减,减少趋势比较明显。在玉米产量形成中,春、秋季降水量对玉米最终产量的影响相对于夏季要小。夏季降水量对玉米的产量形成关系非常密切,降水对气候产量的贡献表现为正相关。在山西省,玉米产量达到4500kg/hm2需要430mm的降水量,而夏季降水量则需达到260mm,其降水量多少对玉米生产起着决定性的作用,尤其是夏季。结论]降水量的不断减少将加速山西省干旱的发展,对山西省的农业生产和发展十分不利。

Analysis of the Precipitation Characteristics and the Corn Yield Change in Shanxi Province

Objective] The research aimed to research the effects of precipitation on corn yield in Shanxi province.Method] The move average method and linear regression were used to make the experiment.Result] The results showed that the annual precipitation reduced by 9.3 mm/10a,the annual precipitation decreased at the annual rate of 0.93 mm in Shanxi province,occurrence probability of extreme annual precipitation was great in the last 15 Years.The spring precipitation showed no significant increasing tendency.The summer precipitation showed significant decreasing tendency,and it decreased at the annual rate of 0.85 mm.The spring and autumn precipitation had less influence than summer precipitation on corn yield.There were intimate relationships between summer precipitation and corn yield,and there was positive correlation between them.In Shanxi province,the corn yield 4 500 kg/hm2 was need the annual precipitation 430 mm and summer precipitation 260 mm.Precipitation acted as a crucial effect in the corn yield,especially in summer.Conclusion] Decrease of precipitation would accelerate the development of drought in Shanxi province,and it was a disadvantage to agricultural production and development.