基于能值生态足迹模型的青藏高原东部高寒牧区可持续发展研究

可持续发展已经成为世界各国普遍追求的目标,区域可持续性的评估也逐渐成为制定区域发展政策的重要理论依据。甘南藏族自治州是我国典型的高寒牧区之一,其可持续发展问题已成为当前发展畜牧业的关键。本研究基于能值理论,运用改进的能值生态足迹模型,对2005-2013年甘南藏族自治州(简称甘南州)各县、市可持续发展状态进行了定量研究。改进模型的关键在于采用区域能值密度计算生态承载力和生态足迹,能够更真实地反映研究区生态系统的供给能力和人类对资源的消耗状况。结果表明,1)研究区生态足迹组成中,畜牧业产品所占比重最大,并保持稳定;电力和燃料煤比重逐年上升,而种植业产品和野柴草比重有所降低。2)甘南州人均生态足迹不断增大,由2005年的4.77 hm~2/人增加到2013年的7.09 hm~2/人;人均生态承载力呈波动变化,保持在4.64~5.65 hm~2/人之间。3)甘南州生态足迹指数总体呈下降趋势,9年间整体处于不可持续发展状态。4)甘南州万元GDP生态足迹由2005年的12.60 hm~2/万元下降到2013年的4.86 hm~2/万元,资源利用效率不断提高,其中合作市最高,迭部县次之,其他各县无明显区别。5)甘南州以畜牧业为主的玛曲县、碌曲县、夏河县和合作市人均生态足迹和人均生态承载力总体均大于农牧交错区的临潭县、卓尼县、舟曲县和迭部县。9年间,迭部县、玛曲县和碌曲县处于可持续发展状态;夏河县、卓尼县和舟曲县处于不可持续发展状态;合作市和临潭县处于严重不可持续发展状态。基于以上研究结果,对研究区未来可持续发展进行了有益探讨。

Sustainable development of the alpine pastoral region in the eastern Tibetan Plateau based on the emergy ecological footprint model

Sustainable development is a shared goal of all countries around the world.The assessment of regional sustainability is becoming an important theoretical basis for policy making.Gannan Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture is a typical alpine pastoral region in China.In this region,sustainable development has become a major issue with the ongoing development of animal husbandry.Therefore,we analyzed the sustainable development of counties and cities in Gannan from 2005 to 2013 based on a modified emergy ecological footprint model.Regional emergy densities are the key of the modified model,which was used to quantify the ecological carrying capacity and the ecological footprint.Therefore,this model can truly reflect the supply capacity of ecosystems and human resource consumption in these areas.The results indicated that livestock products accounted for the largest proportion of the ecological footprint in the study area,and remained stable during the study period.The percentage of electricity and coal consumption increased year by year,while the proportion of farming products and wild firewood decreased.The per capita ecological footprint in Gannan increased from 4.77 ha per capita in 2005 to 7.09 ha per capita in 2013.The per capita ecological carrying capacity fluctuated between 4.64 ha per capita and 5.65 ha per capita.The ecological footprint index of Gannan showed a decreasing trend,and its ecological environment had an unsustainable development status during the study period.The ecological footprint per ten thousand yuan GDP in Gannan dropped from 12.60 ha per ten thousand yuan in 2005 to 4.86 ha per ten thousand yuan in 2013,revealing that the resource utilization efficiency had improved.Among the counties and cities,Hezuo had the highest ecological footprint index,followed by Diebu.There were no significant differences among the other counties.In general,the per capita ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity were higher in regions of animal husbandry development (Maqu,Luqu,Xiahe,and Hezuo) than in regions with a farming-pastoral ecotone (Lintan,Zhuoni,Zhouqu,and Diebu).During the 9 years,Diebu,Maqu,and Luqu had a sustainable development status while Xiahe,Zhuoni and Zhouqu had an unsustainable development status.Hezuo and Lintan had a seriously unsustainable development status.Based on these findings,we discuss the future sustainable development of Gannan.