Improving cereal yield forecasts in Europe – The impact of weather extremes |
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Institution: | 1. Università degli Studi di Milano, DEMM, Cassandra lab, via Celoria 2, 20133 Milano, Italy;2. Università degli Studi di Milano, DiSAA, Cassandra lab, via Celoria 2, 20133 Milan, Italy;3. European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Monitoring Agricultural Resources Unit—H04, Via Fermi 2749, TP 263, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy;4. Universidad de Córdoba, Departamento de Agronomía, Apartado 3048, 14080 Córdoba, Spain;5. Agroscope Institute for Sustainability Sciences ISS, Reckenholzstrasse 191, P.O. Box 8046, Zürich, Switzerland;6. UMR Ecosystème Prairial, INRA, VetAgroSup, 63000 Clermont-Ferrand, France;7. Instituto de Agricultura Sostenible, CSIC. Apdo. 4084, 14080 Cordoba, Spain;8. Munich Re, Agro & Weather, Königinstr. 107, 80802 Munich, Germany;1. The James Hutton Institute, Craigiebuckler, Aberdeen, AB15 8QH, UK;2. Grassland Ecosystem Research Unit, French National Institute of Agricultural Research, 5 Chemin de Beaulieu, 63039 Clermont-Ferrand, France;1. CEIGRAM-Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, ETSIAAB, 28040, Madrid, Spain;2. IFAPA-Centro Alameda del Obispo, Junta de Andalucía, P.O. Box 3092, 14080, Córdoba, Spain;3. Área de Producción Vegetal, Universidad de Oviedo, EPM, 33600, Mieres, Spain;4. University of Castilla-La Mancha, Department of Economic Analysis, Toledo, Spain;5. IFEVA-CONICET, Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina;6. CONICET-INTA, Facultad de Agronomía, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Argentina;1. ULg Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Department Environmental Sciences and Technologies, 5030, Gembloux, Belgium;2. Deptartment Geological Sciences, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48823, USA;3. ULg Gembloux Agro-Bio Tech, Department Agronomical Sciences, 5030 Gembloux, Belgium |
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Abstract: | The impact of extreme events (such as prolonged droughts, heat waves, cold shocks and frost) is poorly represented by most of the existing yield forecasting systems. Two new model-based approaches that account for the impact of extreme weather events on crop production are presented as a way to improve yield forecasts, both based on the Crop Growth Monitoring System (CGMS) of the European Commission. A first approach includes simple relations – consistent with the degree of complexity of the most generic crop simulators – to explicitly model the impact of these events on leaf development and yield formation. A second approach is a hybrid system which adds selected agro-climatic indicators (accounting for drought and cold/heat stress) to the previous one. The new proposed methods, together with the CGMS-standard approach and a system exclusively based on selected agro-climatic indicators, were evaluated in a comparative fashion for their forecasting reliability. The four systems were assessed for the main micro- and macro-thermal cereal crops grown in highly productive European countries. The workflow included the statistical post-processing of model outputs aggregated at national level with historical series (1995–2013) of official yields, followed by a cross-validation for forecasting events triggered at flowering, maturity and at an intermediate stage. With the system based on agro-climatic indicators, satisfactory performances were limited to microthermal crops grown in Mediterranean environments (i.e. crop production systems mainly driven by rainfall distribution). Compared to CGMS-standard system, the newly proposed approaches increased the forecasting reliability in 94% of the combinations crop × country × forecasting moment. In particular, the explicit simulation of the impact of extreme events explained a large part of the inter-annual variability (up to +44% for spring barley in Poland), while the addition of agro-climatic indicators to the workflow mostly added accuracy to an already satisfactory forecasting system. |
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Keywords: | Agro-climatic indicators CGMS Crop model Extreme weather events WOFOST Yield forecasting |
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