Modelling wheat yield change under CO2 increase,heat and water stress in relation to plant available water capacity in eastern Australia |
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| Affiliation: | 1. NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia;2. School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, NSW 2007, Australia;3. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;4. NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange Agricultural Institute, Orange, NSW 2800, Australia;5. NSW Department of Primary Industries, Bruxner Highway, Wollongbar, NSW 2477, Australia;6. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Northwest Agriculture and Forest University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China;1. NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga Agricultural Institute, Wagga, NSW 2650, Australia;2. School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Technology Sydney, PO Box 123, Broadway, Sydney, NSW 2007, Australia;3. CSIRO Agriculture & Food, Private Bag 5, Wembley, WA 6913, Australia;4. Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, Australia;5. NSW Department of Primary Industries, Orange Agricultural Institute, NSW 2800, Australia;6. State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dryland Farming on the Loess Plateau, Northwest A&F University, Yangling, Shaanxi 712100, China;7. College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Science, Beijing 100049, China |
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| Abstract: | Increasing heat and water stress are important threats to wheat growth in rain-fed conditions. Using climate scenario-based projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5), we analysed changes in the probability of heat stress around wheat flowering and relative yield loss due to water stress at six locations in eastern Australia. As a consequence of warmer average temperatures, wheat flowering occurred earlier, but the probability of heat stress around flowering still increased by about 3.8%–6.2%. Simulated potential yield across six sites increased on average by about 2.5% regardless of the emission scenario. However, simulated water-limited yield tended to decline at wet and cool locations under future climate while increased at warm and dry locations. Soils with higher plant available water capacity (PAWC) showed a lower response of water-limited yield to rainfall changes except at very dry sites, which means soils with high PAWC were less affected by rainfall changes compared with soils with low PAWC. Our results also indicated that a drought stress index decreased with increasing PAWC and then stagnated at high PAWC. Under high emission scenario RCP8.5, drought stress was expected to decline or stay about the same due to elevated CO2 compensation effect. Therefore, to maintain or increase yield potential in response to the projected climate change, increasing cultivar tolerance to heat stress and improving crop management to reduce impacts of water stress on lower plant available water holding soils should be a priority for the genetic improvement of wheat in eastern Australia. |
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| Keywords: | GCMs Heat stress Water stress Wheat yield PAWC |
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