我国财政支农对粮食产量影响的实证分析

基于1990～2012年相关统计数据,实证分析了我国财政支农资金对粮食产量的影响.通过单位根检验,发现财政支农资金和粮食产量都是非平稳时间序列,但通过一阶差分后可变成平稳序列;二者存在长期协整关系,但短期内可能失衡;Granger因果关系检验结果表明二者互不为彼此Granger原因.财政支农在长期可以促进粮食增产,但在短期对粮食生产并不能起到促进作用,并在此基础上提出应加大财政支农资金投入、加强对财政支农资金利用的监督和管理、优化财政支农资金投入结构、完善多元化的粮食生产投资体系等对策建议.

An Empirical Analysis of the Impact of Financial Support for Agriculture on Grain Yield in China

This paper analyzes the relationship between financial support for agriculture and grain yield from 1990 to 2012,and the results show that both financial support for agriculture and grain yield are not stationary time series through unit root test,but they can become stationary time series through the first difference; it is found that there is a cointegration relationship between financial support for agriculture and grain yield in the long term,however,there may be imbalance in the short term ; it is also found that the two are not the Granger cause of each other through Granger test of causality.Financial support for agriculture can promote grain production in the long run,but cannot play a role in promoting grain production in the short term.Therefore,it should increase financial funds for supporting agriculture,increase the supervision and management of financial support for agriculture,optimize the structure of financial funds for supporting agriculture,and perfect the investment system of grain production.