基于系统动力学的水污染问题研究

基于系统科学的思想,从人口、经济与环境相互耦合的视角,构建水污染问题的系统动力学模型。结合应用统计模型、计量经济模型,来确定系统动力学模型的相关参数,再以vensim软件为仿真平台,对水污染问题进行仿真研究。最后以南京市为例,对1995～2020年南京市水污染问题仿真。结果表明,1995～2015年南京市水污染量持续增加,之后水污染量在稳定中稍有下降趋势。水污染导致的环境成本逐年增加,传统的GDP核算体系在未来显然是不合适的,南京市应尽快完善实施绿色GDP核算体系。

Research on Water Pollution Problems Based on System Dynamics

According to the theory of system science,a system dynamics model for water pollution problems is built from the interdependent view of population,economy and environment.The parameters of the model are determined by applied statistics models and econometrics models,and then a simulation study is conducted on the water pollution problems with vensim software as its simulation platform.Finally,with Nanjing as an example,its water pollution from 1995 to 2020 is simulated.Results indicate that the amount of polluted water in Nanjing increases continuously during 1995-2015 and then will keep a stable and even a slight decrease trend during the latter years.Water pollution leads to the yearly increase of environmental cost and the traditional GDP accounting system is obviously not applicable to the future,therefore it is proposed that Nanjing should build a green GDP accounting system as soon as possible.