苏南茶区无霜期气候变化趋势研究

利用江苏省苏南茶区内9个站点1961-2008年的气象观测资料,采用气候倾向率、Mann-Kendall(简称M-K法)等数理统计方法分析了无霜期的气候变化,以期为苏南茶区调整茶树种植结构提供依据。结果表明:苏南茶区无霜期呈显著延长的变化趋势,平均每10a延长7～9d(苏锡常区域);极短无霜期和偏短无霜期均出现在1996年之前;极长无霜期和偏长无霜期均出现在1989年之后;各区无霜期均发生气候突变,宁镇区域和苏锡常区域气候突变点分别为1996年和1984年,突变后平均无霜期分别延长了16、15d。因此,建议苏南茶区茶树品种的种植结构应随气候变化进行调整,宁镇区域和苏锡常区域北部要大力引进早芽种,适度引进特早芽种;苏锡常区域南部适宜大力引进和推广特早芽种。

Climatic Variation Tendency of Nonfrost Period in Southern Jiangsu Tea Region

In order to adjust tea planting structure and promote corresponding industry development by climatic resource of southern Jiangsu tea region,the climatic change of nonfrost period was analyzed by climatic tendency rate and Mann-Kendall(M-K) methods based on meteorological data of nine stations in southern Jiangsu tea region during 1961 to 2008.The nonfrost period showed a visible rising tendency,averagely 7 to 9-day increase every 10 years(Suxichang region).The extra short and comparatively short nonfrost period was present before 1996,while the extra long and comparatively long nonfrost period was present after 1989.Noticeably,the climate jump of nonfrost period of Ningzhen region and Suxichang region was found in 1996 and 1984,respectively,prolonging the nonfrost period by 16 days and 15 days.It was suggested that the tea planting structure of southern Jiangsu should change with the tendency.Specifically,northern part of Ningzhen and Suxichang region should make great efforts to introduce early sprouting species and properly introduce extra-early sprouting species,and meanwhile,southern part of Suxichang region should try their best to introduce and popularize extra-early sprouting species.