Gesunde Pflanzen unter zukünftigem Klima

Predicted changes in average values of global climate variables (increased temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, increased concentrations of atmospheric CO₂) and changes in the frequency, duration, and degree of extremes (frost, heat, drought, hail, storms, floods, etc.) will affect agricultural crops, agroecosystems, and agricultural productivity. Although forecasts of regional climate changes are still imprecise, mean temperature increases in Europe are expected to be greater in the north (2.5–4.5°C) than in the south (1.5–4.5°C). Regional forecasts for precipitation changes are also very far from precise; however, problems with drought are expected to increase, especially in Mediterranean countries. Overall, shortage of water will be the predominant factor affecting plant growth. As higher temperatures are known to enhance plant development and especially the grain-filling duration of cereals, grain yield losses are possible in a warmer climate. On the other hand, elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are known to stimulate photosynthesis and enhance growth and yield (“CO₂ fertilization”); concomitantly, leaf transpiration is reduced, resulting in improved water use efficiency. Total biomass and yield were enhanced by 20–30% in experiments with elevated CO₂ exposure (550–700 ppm) under more or less ideal growth conditions. Elucidating the interactions between positive and negative effects of climate change is of crucial importance for any prediction of future crop yields. The present paper is a brief summary mainly of the potential effects of elevated temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ on crop growth, quality, and yield. Also, adaptation measures, possible interactive effects of different climate variables, and interactions of climate change components with other growth variables (pathogens, air pollutants) are briefly described.