气候变暖背景下安徽气温变化趋势分析

利用安徽省1959 ～ 2007年的气温资料,采用线性回归法、Mann-Kendall法和累积距平法,分析了安徽49年来气温变化趋势及演变特征.结果表明,安徽省年平均气温呈现显著的上升趋势,气候倾向率为0.217℃/1Oa,气温时间序列在2000年发生了由低温向高温的突变;气温变化存在明显的季节性差异,春、冬季线性增温趋势最明显,达到0.05的显著性水平,其次为秋季和夏季,但夏、秋季平均气温在20世纪80年代之后逐年代上升的趋势开始明显,进入21世纪后各季节均增温明显.

Analysis of the Variation of Average Temperature in Anhui under the Background of Global Warming

Based on sixteen meteorological stations air temperature data of Anhui from 1959 to 2007,using linear regression method,MannKendall method and accumulative anomaly method,the characteristics and tendencies of annual temperature variation were analyzed.The results showed that the annual average temperature has significantly increasing tendency,and the average rising rate was 0.208℃ per 10 years.There was an abrupt temperature change in 2000.The seasonal differences on the variation of temperature are significant.The linear warming trend is most significant in spring and winter,and their temperature increases were significant at 0.05 level,autumn and summer is behind.But the average temperature in summer and autumn after the 1980s presented an upward trend year after year,especially obvious since the 21st century.