江苏省农业机械化影响因子的实证分析

基于2000～2010年江苏省统计数据，运用R型聚类方法将选取的23个指标进行分类，并从不同类中选出典型指标作为因变量，建立多元线性回归模型，用于研究江苏农业机械化程度与影响因子之间的相互依赖关系。通过查看回归方程的显著性以及残差分析对模型进行检验并利用逐步回归方法选择并确认最优回归模型。整个建模和计算检验过程通过SPSS软件实现。结果表明，农业产值与农业机械总动力存在明显的线性关系，乡村从业人员对于农业机械化程度的影响越来越大，江苏省农业机械化的影响因子在此模型中可归纳为林业产值、农作物总播种面积等5个因子。

Empirical Analysis of Agricultural Mechanization Influencing Factors in Jiangsu Province

R cluster was used to classify 23 indicators, and the dependent variables were selected from different categories as typical indicators to establish a multiple linear regression model, which is used to examine the interdependence between the degree of Agricultural Mechanization （AM） in Jiangsu and its influencing factors. The model was examined by significance test and residual analysis. The stepwise method was a-dopted to select and confirm the optimal regression model. The modeling and calculation process were implemented by SPSS. The results showed that the farming value is connected with AM, the work in the courtyard has more and more impact on the AM index, the most five im-portant factors are x3-forestry output value（ billions yuan）, xs-crops total planting area（ khm2）, and so on.