基于流域总降水高分辨估计的暴雨灾害风险评估

提出了基于新一代多普勒天气雷达和自动气象站资料的流域总降水高分辨估计方法，结合灾情定量指标计算和水文资料，对2011年西安世园会期间陕西3次暴雨过程影响地区灾害风险进行了评估分析。结果表明，汉江上游流域是陕南灾害预警重点地区，流域内过程总降水明显增大是引发陕南次生灾害的主要因素；汉江上游和下游流域同时出现较大总降水时，由于上游降水对下游水文地质灾害的重叠效应和下游水情对上游自然排洪能力的影响，相关地市灾情将有所加重；同时，降水随时间的不均匀性和突发性也是引发灾害的重要因素。

Disaster Risk Assessment of Rainstorm Based on High Resolution Estimation for Basin Total Precipitation

The joint estimation method for basin total precipitation by NEXRAD and automated observation stations was proposed, and combi-ning quantitative disaster index and hydrology analysis, regional rainstorm disaster risks were assessed during the 2011 Xi＇ an World Garden Expo in Shaanxi Province. The results showed that upstream of Hanjiang Basin is the key area to early warning for southern Shaanxi disaster and apparent enlargement of total precipitation is the main factor to disasters happen in southern Shaanxi. The large total precipitation fallen simultaneously in upstream and downstream of Hanjiang Basin, due to the overlap aggravating impact of upstream strong precipitation on the downstream flood disaster and the negative effect of downstream water on natural drainage capacity of upstream at Hanjiang River, will increase disasters in these areas. Meanwhile, temporal in homogeneity and mutability of precipitation are also important factors to disasters.