基于灰色理论的我国耕地面积变化及其决定因素的统计研究

基于1985—2008年我国耕地面积及相关社会经济统计数据，运用灰色关联分析、灰色预测方法，剖析影响我国耕地面积变化的经济社会因素，预测我国耕地资源保障能力。结果表明，GDP、第一产业增加值、固定资产投资以及人口总量与我国耕地面积变化关联紧密，其中人口增加和第一产业产值增长是过去20多年来耕地面积变化的第一、二关联因素；2009～2020年我国耕地面积仍呈减少趋势，但基本能保持数量上平衡，维持在18亿亩以上。由此得出结论：控制人口增长和提高农业产值仍然是保护耕地的关键所在；保护耕地任务艰巨，形势严峻，一旦有所松懈，不但红线保不住，耕地面积有可能加速减少，给经济社会、生态环境造成严重影响。

A Statistical Analysis of Chinese Arable Land Area and the Determinants Based on Grey Theory

Based on cultivated land area and relevant social economic statistic data in China during 1985 - 2008, methods of grey relational a- nalysis and gray prediction were employed to analyze the economic and social factors of change of China＇ s arable land and predict arable land resources. The results showed that GDP, the first industry association, investment in fixed assets and the total population are key factors, where population growth and industrial output growth were the first and the second related factors; The predicted results were that arable land show a continued decreasing trend, but the quantity can hold the balance, and maintain more than 18 million mu. It was concluded that con- trolling population growth and increasing agricultural output are still the key to the protection of arable land ; The task is arduous, and the situation is grim. We can＇ t have loose, not only can＇ t hold the red line, it is possible to accelerate the reduction of arable land, and have a seri- ous impact on the economic and social environment.