近62年南京地区气温变化趋势及其分析

利用南京市1951～2012年逐日气象观测资料，采用非参数统计、成对的斜率回归中值、Spearman等级相关方法，分析了近62年南京市年平均气温、最高（低）气温、冷（热）日频数、日较差、极端气温值的变化趋势。结果表明，近62年南京市年平均气温、最高气温呈现上升趋势，这与全球气候变暖的趋势一致；春季平均气温上升趋势最明显，而夏季平均气温上升趋势最不明显；20世纪80年代后各季节平均气温呈明显的上升趋势。在冷（热）日频数方面，冷日频数减少，热日频数增加；在气温日较差方面，冬、夏、秋季气温日较差呈缓慢下降趋势，仅春季气温日较差呈轻微上升趋势；在极端气温值方面，南京站观测值曾3次最高温突破40℃，2次是出现在20世纪50—60年代，一次出现在2003年，近20年来没有出现年最低温度低于-10℃的严冬。

Variation Trend and Analysis of Temperature in Nanjing in Recent 62 Years

Abstract Using daily meteorological observation data in Nanjing City during 1951 -2012, the variation trend of annual mean temperature, the highest （lowest） temperature, cold （hot） day frequency, daily range, extreme temperature were analyzed with nonparametric statistics, slope re- gression mean, Spearman grade relevant method. The results showed that the annual mean temperature, annual maximum temperature and annual minimum temperature all increase apparently. This is consistent with the trend of global warming. The mean temperature increase in spring is the most obvious, while the trend in summer is close to zero. The annual mean temperatures increase more rapidly after 1980s. In the past 62 years, cold clays in Nanjing decrease and hot clays increase, which is consistent with the warming in Nanjing. The difference of temperature range （DTR） increased in spring and decreased in other seasons. Regarding the extremely temperature, Nanjing has three times with the temperature above 40 ℃, two of which appeared in the 50 - 60 era and the other one in 2003. In most recent 20 years, it seems there is no cold winter with the lowest temperature beyond -10 ℃.