| 咸阳市耕地变化特征及对粮食安全的影响 |
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| 引用本文： | 杨勇,任志远. 咸阳市耕地变化特征及对粮食安全的影响[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2009, 0(6) |
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| 作者姓名： | 杨勇 任志远 |
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| 作者单位： | 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院; |
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| 基金项目： | 西北河谷平原土地生态安全动态与可持续发展途径(项目批准号:40771019)资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 耕地资源和粮食安全不仅是国家层面的研究问题,也是区域层面的重要课题。文中利用55年的耕地统计数据和粮食总产量和人口数据,揭示了咸阳市耕地总体变化特征,分析了咸阳市耕地减少态势的空间差异,对粮食供需状况进行了分析和预测。研究结果表明:咸阳市的耕地面积在建国以后的55年内,经过小幅度的波动,总体上呈减少的趋势,而人均耕地面积持续减少;咸阳市各县区在近20年里耕地减少的幅度北部高于南部;咸阳市的粮食需求量随着人口的增长而增大,但是粮食的供给受多种因素的影响波动较大,总体上呈增长的趋势。预测结果表明,咸阳市的耕地面积还将继续减少,但是在提高复种指数和粮食单产的基础上,粮食供给在人均粮食消费量400kg/a.人情况下,未来10年还能保持较高的粮食自给水平,至2020年,咸阳市的粮食自给还能保持在90%的状态,仍将处于安全状态。
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| 关 键 词： | 耕地数量变化 粮食安全 预测分析 咸阳市 |
The influences of cultivated land change on grain security in Xianyang area |
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| YANG Yong,REN Zhiyuan. The influences of cultivated land change on grain security in Xianyang area[J]. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 2009, 0(6) |
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| Authors: | YANG Yong REN Zhiyuan |
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| Affiliation: | College of Tourism and Environment Sicence;Shaanxi Normal University;Xi'an 710062;P.R.China |
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| Abstract: | Based on the 55a statistical data of the cultivated land,grain production and population data,the characteristics of the cultivated land change in Xianyang area,the spatial difference in cultivated land,as well as the the grain supply and demanding during the past 55 years were analyzed,and the grain security was forecasted.The results showed that the cultivated land decreased continuously after the process of fluctuating lightly;the cultivated land per capita decreased contimuously;the range of cultivated ... |
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| Keywords: | cultivated land change grain security predition and anlysis Xianyang area |
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