基于生态足迹的株洲市可持续发展研究

为定量评价株洲市可持续发展状态,应用生态足迹模型对株洲市2001~2013年的生态足迹和生态承载力进行实证分析,并利用灰色GM(1,1)模型对其发展趋势进行了预测。结果表明,株洲市人均生态足迹由2001年的1.394 6 hm~2逐渐增加到2013年的2.487 5 hm~2;同期人均可利用生态承载力由0.528 4hm~2逐渐下降到0.509 9 hm~2,人均生态赤字由0.866 1 hm~2逐渐增加到1.977 5 hm~2。同时根据预测出的研究区域2016~2025年的人均生态足迹和人均可利用生态承载力,2025年研究区域人均生态赤字将增加到2.569 9 hm~2,表明当前株洲市的生态环境处于中等不可持续状态,并呈现向强不可持续发展趋势。

Study on Sustainable Development of Zhuzhou City Based on Ecological Footprint

The ecological footprint is an important framework to analysis the regional sustainable development.In the present study, the ecological footprint and ecological capacity of Zhuzhou City is calculated and analyzed from 2001 to 2013 by means of the ecological footprint model,as well as the developed trend of this city is predicted by the grey model. The re-sults show that in 2001~2013,the ecological footprint of Zhuzhou per capita increased from 1.3946 hm2 to 2.4875 hm2, the ecological carrying capacity per capita gradually decreased from 0.5284 hm2 to 0.5099 hm2,while the ecological deficit per capita increased from 0.8661 hm2 in 2001 to 1.9775 hm2 in 2013. Likewise,according to the predicted ecological footprint and ecological carrying capacity per capita of the study area from 2016 to 2025,the ecological deficit of the study area in 2025 will increase up to 2.5699 hm2. These results conclude that the ecological environment in Zhuzhou City is located in the medium state with the unsustainable developed trend. Urgently calls on the local government to actively take measures to im-prove the ecological environment, in order to achieve sustainable economic and social development.