重庆市水资源可持续利用能力的模糊评价

针对重庆市水资源时空分布不均、 水资源利用率低以及水环境恶化等现状,利用重庆市政府公开资料及统计资料,采用熵权和模糊综合评判相结合的方法,对重庆市2005年-2014年水资源可持续利用能力进行评判. 根据最大隶属度的原则将水资源可持续利用能力划分为5个等级,并采用等级赋值法对评价结果进行量化,计算出水资源可持续利用指数. 评价结果表明: 重庆市水资源可持续利用能力整体上呈上升趋势,2005年-2009年略有波动,降水量的多少对水资源可持续利用能力影响较大,2010年-2014年,水资源可持续利用能力指数从2.88持续上升到4.04,其中水资源开发利用程度贡献最大. 水资源与环境矛盾突出,成为制约水资源可持续利用的主要因素.

Fuzzy Evaluation of Sustainable Utilization of Water Resources in Chongqing

In order to solve the problems of uneven distribution of water resources in time and space,their low utilization rate and water environment deterioration in Chongqing,the sustainable utilization ability of Chongqing for its water resources between 2005 to 2014 was evaluated with the method of entropy weight and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation based on the disclosed information and statistical data of Chongqing Municipal Government. The sustainable utilization of the water resources was divided into five grades according to the principle of maximum membership degree,and the results of the evaluation were quantified with the rank assignment method,and the water resource sustainable utilization index was calculated. The results showed that on the whole,the sustainable utilization of water resources of the municipality exhibited an ascending trend,with some fluctuations,from 2005 to 2009;that precipitation noticeably influenced water resource sustainable utilization;and that its water resource sustainable utilization index rose from 2.88 in 2010 to 4.04 in 2014,the greatest contribution coming from the high level of water resource development and utilization. The study also demonstrated that there existed a conspicuous contradiction between water resources and environment in Chongqing,which was the main factor restricting the development of sustainable utilization of water resources.