中国南方主要经济作物播种面积变化时序特征及驱动因素分析

作物播种面积是指导农业结构调整和优化的重要依据,及时了解作物播种面积时序变化特征及其驱动因素具有重要意义.笔者利用历史统计资料,选择广东、广西、四川、云南和贵州为代表区,探讨主要经济作物播种面积变化的时序特征及驱动因素.研究表明:(1)广东省油料、花生、糖料和甘蔗播种面积变化呈增-减-平趋势,油菜籽、芝麻和麻类呈增-减...

Temporal Characteristics and Driving Factors of Sown Area Variation for Main Economic Crops in Southern China

The crop sown area is the basis of the adjustment and optimization of agricultural planting structure, so it is of significance to understand its temporal variation characteristics and driving factors in time. Based on historical statistical data, this paper selected five provinces in southern China (Guangdong, Guangxi, Sichuan, Yunnan and Guizhou) as representative areas to explore the temporal characteristics and driving factors of the changes in the sown areas of major economic crops in this region. The results are as follows. (1) In Guangdong, the sown area of oil, peanuts, sugar-yielding crops and sugarcane in Guangdong all displayed a trend of increase-decrease-flat; that of rapeseed, sesame and fibre showed a trend of increase-decrease-increase-decrease, increase-flat-decrease-flat and continuous decline, respectively; and that of jute, tobacco leaves and flue-cured tobacco presented a trend of first increase and then decrease. In Guangxi, the sown area of oil and peanuts displayed a trend of increase, while that of sesame, sugar-yielding crops and sugarcane showed a trend of first increase and then decrease, that of cotton and fibre showed a trend of increase-decreased-flat and continuous decline, respectively, and that of flue-cured tobacco and tobacco leaves fluctuated greatly. In Sichuan, the sown area of oil, peanut and rapeseed constantly increased, that of sesame decreased, that of cotton, fibre and jute showed a trend of first increase and then decrease, and that of sugar-yielding crops, sugarcane, tobacco leaves and flue-cured tobacco presented a trend of increase-decrease-increase-decrease. In Guizhou, the sown area of oil, peanut and rapeseed displayed an increasing trend, that of sesame and cotton showed an increase-decrease-increase-decrease trend and increase-decrease-flat trend, respectively, that of fibre and jute presented a trend of first increase and then decrease, that of tobacco leaves and flue-cured tobacco showed an increase-flat-decrease trend, and that of sugar-yielding crops and sugarcane changed heavily. In Yunnan, the sown area of oil, rapeseed and peanut displayed a trend of increase-decrease-flat-increase, that of sesame, cotton, sugar-yielding crops and sugarcane showed a trend of first increase and then decrease, and that of tobacco leaves and flue-cured tobacco presented a trend of increase. (2) The main driving factors of sown area variation were different in different provinces and for different economic crops, population, agricultural technical indicators, and wind, hail and flood disasters could have a great impact.