韶关市耕地资源态势及宏观驱动力研究

通过对韶关市改革开放20多年来耕地统计资料的处理与分析,得出以下结论:①韶关市耕地数量经历了缓慢减少-急剧减少-缓慢减少的变化过程,并在1985年前后、1987～1990年和1991～1993年出现了3次明显的耕地流失高峰.②耕地减少流向主要是改茶园、桑园、果园、国家基建、因灾害废弃和抛荒.耕地的增加主要来源是新开荒地和园地改为耕地.③经济发展、人口增长和政府政策作为耕地面积变化的主要宏观驱动因子,耕地数量变化过程中的明显突变与国家宏观政策背景相关联,耕地的快速减少在发生时间上与经济的过热增长基本同步,在空间分布上与地区经济发展速度和水平的差异相一致;此外,人口增加对耕地减少的驱动也不可忽视.

Situation and Macro-driving Force for Changes in Arable-land Resource in Shaoguan City

According to the statistics data of arable-land area during the past 20 years of the reform and opening to the outside world,we could conclude that: first of all,changes of arable-land underwent the process which was from gently decrease to steep decrease,then slow decrease.And there were three height periods of decrease in arable-land: round about 1985,1987 to 1990,and 1991 to 1993 respectively.And then,the decreased arable-land was mainly inverted to orchard,project and so on;and the increased arable-land mainly came from exploitation and reclamation of non-utilized land.At last,economic development,population growth and government policy were the dominant macro-driving factors in decrease of cultivated land area in Shaoguan.The obvious break during the change process of arable-land was related to the national macro-policies.Rapid decrease of cultivated land area coincided in time with the overheated growth of economic resulting from the direct investment in fixed assets.Spatial distribution of the decrease in arable-land matched the differences in speed and scale of economic growth among different regions of Shaoguan area.Furthermore,decrease in arable-land from population growth could not be ignored.